Lake County Sentinel
Indians trade deadline primer and organizational dive
BY JUSTIN LADA
SENIOR WRITER
Trade deadline primer
The Cleveland Indians knew they could win the AL Central last season without an Andrew Miller or Brandon Guyer. It would have been more difficult but they would have done it. They needed both to get through the postseason and into the World Series - both of them and a lot from them.
It's more of the same in 2017. As currently constructed, the Indians should win the AL Central in back to back years for the first time since 1998 and 1999. Any move they make on the trade front would be a move that hopefully pushes them over the top in the playoffs. No playoff team is perfect. The Red Sox need a third basemen and another starter. The Astros want another starter. The Nationals need a reliever, maybe a few. The Dodgers need outfield help and the Brewers, yes the Brewers - it's time to take them at least a little seriously - need starting pitching and probably bullpen help.
The Indians? They need a few things as well but probably don't have glaring needs that everyone else does save for Houston and maybe the Dodgers.
So for this exercise with trade season about to begin I have the following listed:
Positions the Indians could use help in ranked in order of most need
Players they have in the farm system at that position that could help them at needed positions or could be trade bait or if a prospect should be "untouchable"
Players the Indians could or should target
What other contenders could be battling the Indians to acquire potential targets
Starting pitching
The Indians can get Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco to start Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS and for Kluber to potentially pitch two games in every round without having to pitch on short rest this year. To be completely honest, the Indians can have Kluber Game 1, Carrasco Game 2, Trevor Bauer/Miker Clevinger Games 3 and 4 and Kluber Game 5 in an ALDS and pretty much the same in the ALCS. That could work. Could. I like Clevinger's potentia. Bauer has had his moments this year and even though I believe he can be a good three starter, if the Indians could even make him their fourth starter in the playoffs, even better. Danny Salazar? Minor league rehab results don't mean much to me, but his velocity in those two starts has been up and down. He's also not been the same All-Star pitcher since last July when he had to miss the game with shoulder fatigue. If the Indians are counting on Salazar to be a key rotation performer in the playoffs, that could be a mistake given his track record. The Indians don't need an ace. They don't even need a number two starter. Just someone who can provide consistency. As for Josh Tomlin, I have been a big fan of Tomlin's since he was in Lake County in 2007 and he did just have his first good start in a month, but if the Indians can upgrade, their rotation they absolutely should.
On the farm
The Indians best pitching prospects are not ready to help this season. Clevinger is already helping them. Ryan Merritt, Shawn Morimando and Adam Plutko should not be considered playoff pitchers. I know Merritt shocked the world a year ago with his Game 5 ALCS performance but it was a shock indeed. In a perfect world, he's not even close to being considered for the Indians playoff roster. Their best prospect pitching wise are: Triston McKenzie (High-A), Julian Merryweather (Triple-A) Matt Espsarza (Double-A), Shane Bieber (High-A), Aaron Civale (High-A) and Thomas Pannone (Double-A). None will or should be pitching in the major leagues this season.
Trade bait
Just my opinion - the Indians would need to get a starting pitcher or a serious impact player with years of control left to trade McKenzie. A young, talented pitcher with years of control left like a Marcus Stroman would have to be the type to pry McKenzie loose. None of the Indians pitching prospects after McKenzie should be untouchable, however. Merryweather throws in the mid-90s with a pair of average secondary pitches. He could probably be a 4th or 5th starter but it probably wouldn't be here either. After Merryweather, Esparza then Pannone, both low-90s pitchers with solid command are next. Bieber and Civale are control specialists who throw harder than Tomlin but could be had in the right deal. Clevinger could also be a piece of a trade for someone too, but that hurts the future rotation as Tomlin is a free agent after this year and he would be a nice fit at the back end of the rotation the next few years. You'll also notice Brady Aiken isn't on this list because he has no trade value. He lacks control and his fastball is 88-90 on a good day.
Targets
Sonny Gray (Oakland) is club and cost controlled through the 2019 season. He's got a career high in strikeout rate, his walk rate is down, his swinging strike rate to support that strikeout rate, is up, and his velocity is back to peak levels. He would be my top target talent wise. However, it would take a big package to get him back because of the years of control left and the Indians don't need an ace.
Jaimie Garcia (Atlanta) has struggled recently but has a respectable strikeout rate, decent walk rate, his swinging strike rate is up and has an excellent ground ball rate and as a bonus is left handed. He could be a nice fit in the rotation in between Carrasco and Bauer. He would be a better option than both Bauer and Clevinger and has had playoff success. Most importantly, Garcia is a rental and won't cost a ton.
Dan Straily (Marlins) is having a decent year and would be a good rotation stabilizer. However, I don't think he's a better option than Bauer or Clevinger in the playoffs and that's what this trade should be for.
No thanks on Gerritt Cole. He's struggling this year, reportedly doesn't get along with Bauer and also has had some injury issues.
Marco Estrada is coming back to earth and has the same issues Tomlin does when he struggles because he barely throws 90. He's also a free agent after this year.
Justin Verlander. Don't even think about it. Same for Jose Quintana (struggling and intradivision trades rarely happen and they shouldn't) and Jason Vargas (still think he comes back to earth and he's not better than Bauer or Clevinger).
Competition
Everyone. Everyone is looking for a starter from Verlander to Gray to Cole to Straily and probably Vargas even. Houston wants a top end pitcher but they may opt for a mid-rotation starter if Dallas Keuchel comes back healthy and Lance McCullers gets back on track quickly. The Yankees and Red Sox want a starter with the Yankees wanting a long term, young starter too. Same for the Brewers. The Royals could use a starter as well if they are going to make a run. The Twins could add someone too (besides Bartolo Colon). The Cubs need a starter as do the Rockies. The Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs in that order, probably have more system depth to deal from here than the Indians, especially if the Indians keep McKenzie off limits.
Relief pitching
Does a bullpen with Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw (yes Bryan Shaw) and Boone Logan as it's top four options need another quality reliever? Yes. Absolutely yes. If the Indians don't want to pay what it might cost on the ridiculous starting pitcher market, their next best option would be to find relief help. Try to have Kluber and Carrasco go 6 or 7 innings to get to the back end each playoff game. Then do five-and-fly with Bauer and Clevinger (or Salazar, I guess). The Indians trust Dan Otero but would you rather have Otero or a pitcher that misses bats in the 5th and 6th innings of the playoffs not named Miller or Allen? They shouldn't be using Zach McAllister, Nick Goody or Shawn Armstrong in close playoff games after the fifth inning. If they can't or won't pay the price on the trade market for a starting pitcher to start a playoff game, bullpen is a real option.
On the farm
There's really nobody in the Indians organization to help the Indians bullpen. Perci Garner doesn't have the experience even though he's a good relief prospect. I thought there was a chance Dylan Baker could make his major league debut this year but he's hurt again. Way, way down is Dalbert Siri and Ryder Ryan, probably the Indians best relief prospects in terms of stuff and upside. They're not ready. Or maybe the Indians put Salazar in the bullpen and use him as their fifth reliever to bridge the gap to Shaw, Allen and Miller.
Trade bait
All of these guys listed are trade bait. The Indians used Ben Heller and J.P Feyereisen in the package to get Andrew Miller last year. None of their relief prospects at this moment have Heller's upside or Feyereisen's floor even but they do have some good prospects that could be used in a deal for some kind of help.
Targets
Felipe Rivero (Pittsburgh) might not be on the market but if they decide to sell, he'd be an attractive trade market. He's a left hander with closing experience and a high strikeout rate. He'd probably only cost slightly less than a starting pitcher however. But he could be the top relief name on the market if the Pirates go that route.
San Diego has a number of relievers like Brad Hand, Kirby Yates and Ryan Buchter. None of them seem like big names and the Indians actually already had and DFA'd Yates a while back. At least Hand and Buchter might be better options than Goody or Armstrong. And if you're not going to use Goody or Armstrong (they don't want to have to just like they didn't want to use Jeff Manship or Cody Anderson last year in the playoffs), then get someone you might use like one of these guys.
Juan Nicasio (Pittsburgh) is also another interesting option that's not a big name but is having a good year with solid numbers to make you feel good about using him in spots you wouldn't trust Goody or Armstrong.
David Phelps, Kyle Barraclough and AJ Ramos (Miami) would be good gets. They all have some walk issues but have major strikeout numbers along with good back end of the bullpen experience. Any of the three would make a terrific fifth reliever, which is what all of these guys would be here.
Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle (Oakland) both provide back end of the bullpen experience as well as playoff experience. Either might come at a decent price considering their injury histories but buyer beware with those despite their potential to really help a bullpen in a fifth reliever role.
Jim Johnson (Atlanta) is pitching well for the Braves and has closing and playoff experience. He might be a little more trustworthy than Goody and Armstrong in the playoffs but i'm not sure he's an upgrade over Otero either.
Competition
Washington would love to get Rivero back after trading him for Mark Melancon last season. With their farm system, the Royals can't afford to bring back many big trade pieces but they could potentially add a decent bullpen arm. The Twins could do the same and the Brewers need bullpen help as well. The Yankees and probably the Red Sox will both be in the relief market this month. The Yankees and Red Sox have the most ammo to do something besides the Indians in this area.
OF
Michael Brantley is having a Comeback Player of the Year type year in left field and is set there. Bradley Zimmer is doing a good job in centerfield and even if he struggles offensively, he's making a huge impact on defense. Lonnie Chisenhall is having a career year in right field. Brandon Guyer has been hitting after coming off the Dl and has a two year deal. Austin Jackson was hitting before he got hurt again. The Indians like Abraham Almonte and he's had his moments, is a switch hitter and can play all three OF spots. I think they're good. The only thing they could go after is an outfielder if Jackson keeps getting hurt or he falls off after the injury. But it would have to be a right handed option in his place and Zimmer's defensive value is so important that anyone they acquire wouldn't have more than a pinch hitting type role
On the farm
Richie Shaffer is an interesting right handed bat option in the outfield. He has 18 homers but is striking out a ton. But he can't play centerfield and that probably hinders his chances of helping. The Indians tried Yandy Diaz in the outfield and it didn't go well. There's now way they'd trust him in the playoffs there and certainly not center field. Tyler Naquin is still around as well but being left handed limits his role on the big league club now.Greg Allen is just now coming back from hammate surgery and could have been a factor in the playoffs either defensively or as a pinch runner but that looks unlikely now. Outfielders like Andrew Calica, Ka'ai Tom, Connor Capel, Mitch Longo, Quinten Holmes, Will Benson and Gabriel Mejia are all names to know but are far, far away from helping this year in Cleveland.
Trade bait
I would assume everyone here is available, including Naquin and then Holmes, their top draft pick this year. It would be nice to hang onto Allen who might be better defensively in centerfield than Zimmer to add to the outfield next season or 2019, but in a move to win the World Series in 2017 or 2018, he's available.
Targets
Specifically, the Indians would probably look for a right handed hitting centerfielder. The Mets Juan Lagares is probably the only name that fits that specific bill but he also has a decently sized contract.
Competition
For a right handed hitting outfielder who is mostly a platoon player? Maybe the Dodgers, who do have a better system for sure. If the Yankees keep losing outfielders to injury, they'll be in this market too. Houston could look but if they make a trade for an outfielder, it's going to be mostly bat regardless of position.
First base
Carlos Santana is having a strangely bad contract season. There's no way they'd trade for a first basemen unless Santana was hurt. They already owe Edwin Encarnacion a lot of money as well. But if they had to upgrade, this would be their next area to address.
On the farm
Bobby Bradley (Double-A) is far and away their best first base prospect. Nellie Rodriguez (Triple-A) has really fallen off this season. Emmanuel Tapia (Low-A) and Ulysses Cantu (Short season-A) are far away and Tapia has a lot of power but a ton of holes in his swing. Depth wise, this position is rough sailing for the Indians.
Trade bait
Bradley has cut his strikeouts this year in a big way at Double-A at age 21, which is very hard to do and this extremely encouraging. He's taking himself from a potential Jack Cust or Rob Deer to closer to a Chris Carter or maybe even better now. However, he's not off limits in a trade if the Indians need him as a piece to a package, especially if they want to avoid trading McKenzie or Mejia.
Targets
The Athletics would love to probably unload Yonder Alonso (Oakland) in his career year.
Would the Blue Jays trade Justin Smoak?
The Giants would like to unload Brandon Belt's contract and the Rays could deal Logan Morrison if they fall out of the face, but they should be buyers.
Catcher
Yan Gomes' 85 wRC+ is a giant upgrade over a year ago and even those is defense has slipped a bit by most advanced metrics, he's still above average defensively and is great at controlling the run game. Roberto Perez should be getting more playing time as he's been superior defensively according to metrics and has shown he can pick it up with the bat the more experience he gets. If the Indians were to upgrade any position on the field not on the mound, it would be catcher, I just don't know how likely it is if both are healthy. Last year was the perfect storm in their interest in Jonathan Lucroy. Gomes and Perez both suffered injuries and Lucroy was under contract through 2017 and could play some first base and DH and split the catching duties with Gomes and Perez, which is why he turned the trade down. The Indians shouldn't be interested in him again but I'm not sure they can do much at this position anyway.
On the farm
Everyone knows Francisco Mejia. The 50 game hit streak last year and now he is absolutely raking in Double-A at age 21, which is really freaking hard by the way. He has a cannon for an arm and a quick pop time. He still has some work to do defensively with regards to framing, game calling and blocking. Reports are that his attitude has been much better this year than last year, his english is improving so he's improving in working with the pitching staff and his footwork overall has improved. However, he only has slightly over 200 PAs in Double-A and isn't ready for the majors this year, especially defensively. And the Indians certainly prefer a defensive minded catcher over a bat first catcher. Mejia doesn't fit that bill and the Indians are trying to win the World Series and cutting or benching Gomes or Perez for Mejia doesn't make much sense.
Other names to note: Eric Haase is a three true outcomes catcher with real power would is a little older but is more advanced defensively than Mejia at this moment. He's a prospect, not quite on the level of Mejia, but he can be a major league catcher. Sicnarf Loopstok has found some real power in High-A but he's a bit old for the level and isn't a true catcher (playing OF and 1B this year too). Logan Ice is their next catcher on the chart because of his defense and isn't much with the bat. Li-Jen Chu can hit but can't really catch although he has a good arm. Gavin Collins is having a solid year but isn't a full time catcher as well and they just signed draft pick Mike Rivera, who is also a defense first catcher.
Trade bait
The Indians were willing to trade Mejia last season. They could again, but given his improved attitude, english and the struggles of Gomes and Perez at the plate they could opt to hang onto him and maybe move one of them in the future to make room for Mejia. But he's either their second best or top prospect. I'm not sure if he's off limits but the return would have to be significant and the rest of the guys are all on the table if someone likes them, I'm sure.
Targets
Well, Lucroy's defense and offense have both taken serious hits this season, so if the Indians were to go ahead and add a catcher, I don't think he'd be it.
Tyler Flowers (Atlanta) is having a career year offensively and is one of the best framing catchers in baseball this year. No one seems sure if any of this is for real offensively and defensively anything can change within a year. He's probably the only real catching option on the market for the Indians if they go that route.
Alex Avila (Detroit) is putting up an OBP over 400 and an OPS over 1.000. Defensively he's not as good as he was but teams are interested in him with that left handed power and on base skills plus his leadership. The Tigers are clearly going to be sellers but not within the division others and the Indians probably aren't interested.
J.T. Realmuto (Marlins) could be available. He's an offensive first catcher, however but he's a name that could be moved.
Competitors
The Cubs are interested in catching help but pretty much all contending teams, including the Indians, have entrenched starters already.
Second base
Jason Kipnis is struggling whether it is due to missing spring training or constant nagging injuries like his neck, a side muscle or shoulder. He is 30 and you never know with players who are better than the sum of their individual parts like Kipnis that has allowed him to play up to an All-Star level. The Indians did once trade Carlos Baerga, a fan favorite and a one-time clubhouse favorite in 1996, coming off an All-Star season in 1995. If the Indians tried to make that trade today, they couldn't because teams would see more than just "Carlos Baerga - All-Star last year" on the price tag. Kipnis' contract isn't cheap and he's in his 30s now. They won't sell low on him either.
On the farm
If the Indians were to make a change at second base, moving Jose Ramirez there would be the first option. If they were to explore this, on the farm sits Tyler Krieger (Double-A), Mark Mathias (Double-A), Sam Haggerty (High-A) and Samad Taylor (Short season-A) as their top second base prospects. Ronny Rodriguez (Triple-A) and Erik Gonzalez (MLB bench) are shorter term options but neither should be playing everyday.
Trade bait
Nobody at this position is off limits. Given that he may be the most vocal leader in the Indians clubhouse, I'd say Kipnis is probably off limits too but we're continuing for the sake of the article.
Targets
If the Indians looked for second base help on the trade market for some odd reason that they moved on from Kipnis, he was hurt and they didn't want to move Ramirez there -
Josh Harrison (Pittsburgh) is having a good year and has other positional flexibility but gets expensive next year.
Jed Lowrie (Oakland) has versatility, experience and is hitting well.
Yangervis Solarte (San Diego) and Joe Panik (San Francisco) are probably available but not upgrades over Kipnis or Ramirez at second.
Competition
Nobody is really in the market for a second basemen full time unless Starlin Castro is out for a while for the Yankees. The Diamondbacks could try to upgrade over Brandon Drury. The Yankees have the kind of fam system to make any trade they want at the deadline.
Third base
All-Star? MVP? Jose Ramirez? Yep, all three of those words belong in the same sentence. The only reason the Indians would need a third basemen is if they moved Kipnis and moved Ramirez to second base.
On the farm
Yandy Diaz is obviously a fan favorite and has a lot of upside. Richie Shaffer also plays third and is very intriguing. For legitimate third base prospects in this organization you'd have to move all the way down to Nolan Jones (Short season-A) and maybe Gavin Collins (High-A).
Trade bait
If the Indians were to make a move for Gray or another higher end starting pitcher, Diaz might be an attractive trade target and the Indians might be more likely to part with him than McKenzie or Mejia. They probably would also like to see Jones add a little more value before thinking about moving him and I don't even know if he has any trade value. Everyone else is on the table.
Targets
If they went after a third basemen out of house to move Ramirez to second or some kind of bizzaro thing happened,
Harrison (Pittsburgh) fits, Euganio Suarez (Cincinnati) are probably the only two real targets.
Competition
The Yankees would probably like to upgrade from Chase Headley and obviously the Red Sox need a third baseman. Beyond that all the contenders seem set there and again, the Yankees and Red Sox have more prospect ammo than the Indians if they were to enter this market.
Shortstop
Are you kidding me? Francisco Lindor? Let's trudge on with the experiment for trade bait however.
On the farm
Eric Stamets has joined the fly ball revolution, cranking homers like he's never done before and he's never been a hitting prospect let alone power. He's already got a major league glove at shortstop and could probably play second or third as well. But this new power makes him interesting. Erik Gonzalez is there of course and then Ronny Rodriguez is in Triple-A with shortstop experience. Yu-Cheng Chang was part of the Lucroy deal a year ago and is setting career highs in power numbers at 21 in Double-A even though his contact rates are down, it makes him interesting. He is also more likely to move to second or third base. But the Indians or whoever might want him in a trade will keep letting him play shortstop until they have to move him off of the position. The bat should play at short or second and maybe third base. Willi Castro is a switch hitting shortstop starting to come on strong and Luke Wakamatsu is 20, decent defensively but really struggling with the bat in his young career. The Indians did take Tyler Freeman with their second pick in this years draft.
Trade bait
Lindor is obviously off limits but no one in this group is. Chang has the most trade value then probably Castro and then maybe Stamets, but only as filler or a third-tier type prospect. The Indians would probably be willing to include Gonzalez in any trade to get something they need as well.
Targets
Uh...who are they gonna get better than Lindor?
Competition
Zack Cozart (Cincinnati) appears to be the most marketable trade asset on the market and no contenders really need him.
POSTED 07/09/2017 13:06
