This year's MLB trade deadline critical for the Indians
BY JUSTIN LADA
SENIOR WRITER
The Cleveland Indians are at a tough juncture of their franchise. You might not think that being in first place by (5 ½) games in maybe the most mediocre division in baseball is a tough juncture, but the right decision over the next six days by the Indians brass and they could be World Series contenders this year and the next few.
If they make the the wrong decision?
They might not win the World Series this season but could affect their future chances.
At 31, Josh Tomlin is the oldest pitcher in the Indians rotation and can be a free agent at the end of 2018. Everyone else is locked up for longer and for way below market price, even Kluber, who will be making 14 million in his age 35 season.
While the argument is that this rotation won’t be young and affordable forever so the Indians should take advantage is absolutely correct, they cannot afford to mortgage the future so much so that they cut down on their chance to contend this season and the next two, three or more. Not that the Indians don’t have need or don’t have the prospects to fill needs.
The cost for Aroldis Chapman was quite pricey and the Chicago Cubs so far are only guaranteed roughly three months of his services. They gave up 19 year old shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres, their top prospect and now the Yankees, but Torres was essentially a luxury item that they could afford to move.
The Cubs are set around the middle infield with Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez and Ian Happ for the next few years. They are also one of baseball’s most popular teams, not just in their own city, which they are considered the first team over the White Sox, but beloved on a national level. That allows them for a bit more revenue stream and money to replenish traded away talent like Torres, who was signed in a big international spending spree by the Cubs.
Essentially, the Cubs traded away the equivalent if the Indians traded Francisco Lindor for a rent-a-reliever except the Indians would be playing Jose Ramirez at shortstop or perhaps Erik Gonzalez while as mentioned, the Cubs are set at middle infield.
Trading Clint Fraizer and Bradley Zimmer for Chapman or even another reliever would be irresponsible and a mistake that possibly pays off in the short term but is a long term loss. 20 innings of a reliever this year for six years of those two in the outfield doesn’t seem to have much of a balance. The popular argument is that “next year isn’t guaranteed” and that “they’re prospects.” Dealing away Frazier and Zimmer for anything doesn’t guarantee that they win more this year but it sure guarantees that they lost six or possibly 12 years of All-Star potential outfielders.
It’s not as if the Indians have an abundance of outfielders to offset the loss. As it stands, the Indians outfield now features a converted third baseman and mostly underwhelming first round pick, a PED-taking flash in the pan that isn’t eligible to even play in the postseason, an infielder/utility player, a 35 year old having a very good year and a rookie who is performing way over any season he had in the minors. And there’s Michael Brantley, an All-Star with a sore shoulder who hasn’t played in back-to-back games since May and that didn’t go well.
So trade away one or two All-Star or above average starting outfielders and roll with what after? Had one of them been a shortstop, it would be easier to include them in a deal because shortstop looks like it’s taken care of for the next five years. But they’re not and the Indians options below Frazier and Zimmer include Naquin, Greg Allen, Anthony Santander and a long term project in Will Benson. If Frazier and Zimmer don’t pan out, the Indians outfield could be in rough shape anyway but trading them away never allows the chance for an outfield like the Marlins have (Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton) or the Pirates (Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco). Haven’t we seen what young, talented and athletic outfielders can do for a team? Look no further than the 2015 Royals and their mastery of run prevention thanks to Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain.
The reality, like it or not, is that the Indians won’t be able to afford to replace losing out on that kind of talent and their best chance to compete this year, next year and four years down the road is to hang onto players like Frazier and Zimmer. That’s not to say they can’t or shouldn’t trade any prospect. This system isn’t filled with guys that fill out the back of most teams roster like David Huff and Trevor Crowe. Beyond Frazier and Zimmer the organization has done a good job of building up depth in prospects like Bobby Bradley, Francisco Mejia, Yu-Cheng Chang, Mike Clevinger, Allen, Adam Plutko, Brady Aiken, Triston McKenzie, Juan Hillman, and Yandy Diaz. Some of those names could help the Indians this year and some can help land a reliever and a hitter that the Indians could use.
Aside from trading Fraizer or Zimmer for someone like Nolan Arenado who is young and under club control for quite a few more years and with gobs of talent, moving Frazier and Zimmer doesn’t fit the M.O of this organization and thankfully so. When they traded for Ubaldo Jimenez in 2011 with Alex White and Drew Pomeranz, they had Jimenez for the rest of 2011, 2012 and 2013 as well. He finally helped them make the playoffs in 2013 but they moved two top prospects for 2 ½ years of control of a pitcher they felt was an ace. Short of the Indians finding something similar in an outfielder, trading Frazier or Zimmer seems unlikely and would be a mistake if they did.
This starting rotation isn’t going away, even if it’s hard to predict future performance and health. It’s cost controlled and the Indians have the prospects to make a deal to make a run at a World Series this year without putting themselves into a potential rebuild or mediocre seasons in the coming years because of a trade.
A deep playoff run might help get fans re-engaged with this franchise but a playoff appearance in 2013 didn’t prove fruitful in attendance in 2014. Perhaps their best chance to regain a bigger piece of entertainment dollars and fans is to have multiple deep playoff runs while they have this pitching staff locked up. More than one crack at the egg might bring them a World Series rather than mortgaging three or four cracks for one.
The Indians already hold the market advantage. Every contender needs a starting pitcher at this point or already gave up big prospects for one. There aren’t any real proven starters on the market unless you truly believe Chris Sale will get dealt. The Indians are the only team that isn’t in search of high-end or even back end starting pitching help.
It’s a tough balancing act for this front office to make this week, even if it comes at a time when they’re in control.
POSTED 07/26/2016 12:37
Lake County Sentinel
