2016 Indians preseason prospect rankings
BY JUSTIN LADA
SENIOR WRITER
Author's notes: I decided not to do a pre-season prospect ranking list last year because I didn't see enough of the system in 2015 and didn't feel I had enough information and observations to write something worth reading. I didn't get a chance to do a mid-season ranking and I at least saw enough games this year to do a list for 2017.
A couple of caveats about this list/ranking; I won't rank a player I either haven't seen or haven't had enough reports on, which is why you won't see players like Brady Aiken, Will Benson and Nolan Jones among others on my initial list. Below the list I'll offer a few thoughts on notable players I don't have ranked here. I just feel more comfortable rankings players I've seen and have good information on. If I have neither, then my ranking doesn't provide something that's worth reading. Additionally, any player that has appeared in a big league game also won't be on my list (i.e. Erik Gonzalez, Adam Plutko, Shawn Armstrong)
I also place heavy importance on how likely I think a player is to make it to the majors overall and weigh that against their potential impact and then positional difficulty. Catchers, shortstops and centerfielders that I think will make it and make some impact will obviously be favored because of positional importance. Without further ado:
#1
SP Triston McKenzie
Age: 22 (August 9)
Throws: Right
Highest level in 2016: Low-A Lake County
Acquired: 2015 Competitive Balance Round Pick (42 overall)
Notable stat: Didn't allow more than three runs in any start all year (only more than one, four times)
Evaluation: What keeps McKenzie below #1 on a lot of other lists is his being 6-foot-5 and only being 165lbs and having just 95 pro innings, all below High-A. That's fair and because Bradley Zimmer and Francisco Mejia have been pretty good at higher levels and play difficult positions. But at 18 for almost all of 2016, McKenzie dominated in Short Season ball and Low-A. I don't think the Indians even planned to promote him to Lake County last year but when you allow three earned runs and strike out 55 in 49 ⅓ innings, it's time for a new challenge. He had the maturity and poise to handle full season ball all along, but the Indians are being cautious.
McKenzie has been able to basically dominate because he throws a ton of quality strikes. He works his 88-92 mph fastball in all four quadrants with consistency and his curveball is already advanced for his age thanks to the depth and his command of it. His changeup should come along as he gets more reps and especially if he is able to fill out his frame and add a few miles an hour to his fastball. His delivery is so effortless, smooth and extremely repeatable. That's miles ahead of almost all prep drafted arms. He's not a velocity first pitcher either, so he's a pitcher and not a thrower already as well. I doubt the Indians will do it, but I think starting him in Lynchburg in 2017 would be just fine. He's extremely personable and mature that he'll be able to shake off any struggles and adjust. Ideally, he'd eventually bulk about to about 190 or so, but as long as his stuff continues to develop, McKenzie is an ace in the making that doesn't need to throw in the upper-90s to miss bats or get outs. His age and experience make him a bit away from the Indians developmental standards, but there's just so much to like about McKenzie's future potential and reaching it, which is why I didn't hesitate to make him my top prospect.
#2
C Francisco Mejia
Age: 21 (October 27)
Bats: Switch; Throws: Right
Highest Level in 2016: Advanced-A Lynchburg
How Acquired: International Free Agent Sign 2012 (Dominican Republic)
Notable stat: Posted 41 multi-hit games, had just 15 games where he didn't record a hit. Had just 10 multi-strikeout games,
Evaluation: Mejia made headlines for his 50 game hitting streak and being the centerpiece of the failed Jonathan Lucroy trade. While hitting streaks are fluky, the fact that Mejia is talented enough to put together streaks where he just hits and hits and doesn't strike out is enough to vault him up every prospect list. It was hard to choose between McKenzie and Mejia because both are prospects at premium positions with the ability to advance and make an impact at them. I chose McKenzie as one and Mejia as two because there is always the chance Mejia may not stay a catcher long term. If he does, that may hurt his offensive profile.
That being said, Mejia has the chance to be an All-Star caliber hitter because of his bat to ball profile so he doesn't strikeout. He's a switch hitter who had no platoon issues at the dish. He might lack above average power but it's possible he runs into a few 15-20 HR seasons if everything breaks right. Defensively, there are zero questions about his arm. He's been clocked at 2.0 and sub 2.0 pop times with an absolute cannon. His blocking and framing obviously need work, but those are tools that take a lot of time and reps. Mejia is a converted infielder and played 2016 at the age of 20, so there's plenty of time for that to come along. The only noteworthy drawback has been some character and hustle concerns at times. Mejia was pulled from a game in Lake County this year for not running out a grounder and was reportedly upset and went back to the locker room during the game. He had at least one noted benching by the Captains this year for this type of incident but reportedly was much better at Lynchburg. He'll probably start 2017 in Lynchburg but he might benefit more from working with the Indians catching guru and Akron RubberDucks Manager Dave Wallace in Double-A. If he doesn't start there, it wouldn't be a shock to see him get there at some point in 2017.
#3
OF Bradley Zimmer
Age: 24 (November 27)
Bats: Left; Throws: Right
Highest Level in 2016: Triple-A Columbus
How Acquired: 2014 1st Round Pick (21 overall)
Noteworthy Stat: Slugged .513 at Canal Park, a noted cavernous pitchers park before his promotion to Triple-A and stole 30 of his 38 bases before the All-Star break.
Evaluation: I hate to start with the negatives since Zimmer should be an above average regular centerfielder. The floor might be a little lower than originally thought on Zimmer as his first taste of Triple-A inexplicably saw his K% rise from a rough 28.3% in Double-A to an alarming 37.3%. He still posted a BB% of 14%, which helps his value but Zimmer's strikeout rate has risen each year as a pro. He only had 150 plate appearances at Triple-A,so maybe he can adjust with more experience. The only gap between Double-A and Triple-A pitching is seeing pitchers who have made big league starts before and might have had some success. It has been said that the Indians had Zimmer make some adjustments with his swing and might have caused him to struggle a bit at Triple-A as he was making them in-season and in-game. 2017 should be a good test for how he's taken to those changes.
Zimmer struggles to put the ball in play against left handers (14 strikeouts in 29 at bats at Triple-A, 35 in 84 at Double-A), which could make him occasionally unplayable at the next level. The good news is that he will take his walks against left handers and right handers, has shown he has the ability to steal bases consistently and plays a good centerfield. Those are enough to keep him in the lineup against most left handers. Defensively, there is no reason Zimmer cannot stay in centerfield. He runs pretty good routes, has a good first step and is an above average runner. He'd play right field just as well but you'd like the bat to be a little better to profile there. Still, there's a good chance Zimmer winds up something near 20/20 with a solid OBP and good defense. If he never cuts the strikeouts down, he'll never reach his All-Star ceiling but his floor should make him something of a 2.0-4.0 fWAR player.
#4
OF Greg Allen
Age: 23 (March 15)
Bats: Switch; Throws: Right
2016 Highest Level: Double-A Akron
How Acquired: 2014 Draft 6th round (188 overall)
Notable Stat: Drew seven more walks than strikeouts in High-A and just eight more strikeouts than walks in Double-A. Has 159 walks in three seasons as a pro compared to just 164 strikeouts.
Evaluation: There are quite a few mixed reviews on Allen. They range from top of the order table setter, Kenny Lofton-ish, Michael Bourn or fourth outfielder. I generally try to avoid player comps because they are unreliable. Lofton was younger and a better hitter than Allen in the minors and Bourn struck out a lot more. A lot. Allen is more adept at putting the ball in play and actually has shown more power in the minors than Lofton did. Again, Lofton was younger. Allen does have the benefit of being a switch hitter and is capable of producing similar contact rates and walk rates from both sides of the plate.
I fall into the camp that believes Allen can be much more than a fourth outfielder. I believe that because I think he can hit and walk enough to be a regular who can utilize his plus speed. He's stolen 40 or more bases in all three of his pro seasons, so he can run and he's aggressive. He'll just need to work on getting better at the mental aspect of stealing - reading pitchers better. I also think he's an everyday centerfielder. He has great speed in center and has the flair for spectacular catches. His routes and initial reads could use some improvement, but he's shown flashes of doing both things well at times and his athleticism and work ethic should allow him to make necessary improvements in both areas. I don't know if he'll ever be the kind of hitter Lofton was but I think he'll strike out a lot less than Bourn, so I guess I think he falls between the two. The only downside is that Allen will be 24 in March and will only have had 145 at bats above A ball. The Indians could probably be a little more aggressive with Allen's development now and utilize his skill set while he's still young and developing, rather than waiting until he's halfway through his age 25 season and have to decide how he and Zimmer fit next to each other. Allen doesn't have Zimmer's ceiling so he's more like Jose Ramirez when the Indians decided to promote him instead of Francisco Lindor because they felt he could help but wanted Lindor to finish his development and save some service time for him. Allen should do all that quite nicely and soon.
#5
3B/OF Yandy Diaz
Age: 25 (August 8)
Bats: Right; Throws: Right
2016 Highest Level: Triple-A Columbus
How Acquired: International Free Agent Signed 2013
Notable Stat: Accumulated 127 walks and 105 strikeouts in his first two pro seasons after signing from Cuba. Posted a 1.067 OPS when ahead in the count.
Evaluation: Diaz was an underrated teenage second basemen in the Cuba National Series. Since joining the Indians in 2013 and going right to a full season affiliate with little other experience stateside outside of complex instructs, he's been the same player in the Indians organization that he was in Cuba. He shows good bat control, a tremendous command of the strike zone and eye at the plate and a solid glove. At 6-foot-2 and 185lbs, Diaz does look physically imposing and someone who could hit for power. However, he's never really shown much in the power department. He's still proven to be a good hitter who will walk a lot and post a good on-base percentage. There's a chance he might eventually grow into maybe average power but his approach should translate and make him a valuable piece at the next level.
Defensively, Diaz played second base in Cuba but hasn't played there much since being signed. He switched to third base and made 32 errors there in 2014 and 2015. In 2016, he made just eight at third base and by all reports, looked comfortable in the outfield as well. Third base will probably be his best position but if he can play all the corners combined with his ability to draw walks and hit, Diaz will find a lot of chances to play at the next level.
#6
1B Bobby Bradley
Age: 20 (May 29)
Bats: Left; Throws: Right
How Acquired: 2014 Draft 3rd Round (97 overall)
Highest 2016 Level: Advanced-A Lynchburg
Notable Stat: Led Carolina League and all Advanced-A levels in homers (29) and was 7th in OPS in 2016 (.810)
Evaluation: Bradley has posted over a .200 ISO in all three of his pro seasons thus far but it's come with the caveat of a lot of strikeouts. He struck out in 31.8% of his at bats at Low-A Lake County in 2015 and 29.7% at Advanced-A Lynchburg in 2016. Bradley has pretty good bat control most of the time but is pull happy enough that teams actually began shifting on him at Lake County. His power will never be questioned and even though he's going to be 21 and in Double-A in 2017, he's already struck out a lot against lesser pitching as a teenager. He does have time to refine his approach a little. He does walk and a good clip now, but it's hard to see how he'll learn to cut down on his strikeouts as he begins to face advanced pitching and guys who can throw multiple quality offerings for strikes. 2017 will be a big year for Bradley. He'll either cement himself as the first basemen of the future or he might travel the path of a Rob Deer, Adam Dunn, or Chris Carter type as a three-true outcome hitter with big power numbers and not much else. At the least, he's on the strong side of the platoon, although production vs. LHP wasn't much of an issue in 2016 (.830 OPS vs. RHP, .801 OPS vs. LHP).
Bradley's real challenge is whether he will be able to play first base full time decently. He's a pretty good athlete who can move at the position but he's never shown more than the ability to be just an average defender. His body is maxed out probably but as he gets older, he may be limited to DH which of course hurts his value. Still, his power potential and his age keeps him high on the Indians prospect list.
#7
2B Tyler Krieger
Age: 22 (January 16)
Bats: Switch ; Throws: Right
How Acquired: 2015 Draft 4th Round (124 overall)
2016 Highest Level: Advanced-A Lynchburg
Notable Stat: Had 20 multi hit games at Low-A Lake County
Evaluation: Krieger is a typical high floor-low ceiling college infielder. He doesn't have Jason Kipnis' power upside but figures to be a pretty solid hitter and is a switch hitter. He was a shortstop at Clemson but a shoulder injury forced him to DH his senior year and the Indians let him get healthy and have exclusively used him at second base since drafting him and that figures to be where he'll stay. He would have had more value at shortstop or if he could at least play both. Krieger did fairly well at both levels last year with the bat but showed a little better approach as a right handed hitter. He will strike out some but walks more than enough to post a solid OBP. He does have some decent speed, but isn't a burner. He stole 21 bases but was caught 15 times, so he may need to learn to get better reads.
Krieger struggled some making the transition to second base in 2016. He looks like he has plenty of range and good hands, he just had issues making reads and taking good angles to the ball. He should be an adequate second basemen but his bat will be what carries him. He also gets high marks for character and work ethic, so his ability to work on things to get better and stick around in the system for a chance to make it long term seems good.
#8
SS Yu-Cheng Chang
Age: 21 (August 18)
Bats: Right ; Throws: Right
How Acquired: International Free Agent Signed 2013
2016 Highest Level: Advanced-A Lynchburg
Notable Stat: .832 OPS vs. LHP, .770 vs. RHP, .204 ISO
Evaluation: Most know Chang as part of the ill-fated Jonathan Lucroy trade. He was probably possibly the 2nd biggest piece in the trade. When Cheng was at Lake County in 2015, he struggled at the plate and in the field. He was a free swinger who seemed overmatched and lacked the range and consistency to remain at shortstop. 2016 was quite the change for the 21 year old. He didn't cut his strikeout rate but he did improve his walk rate quite significantly to help make the strikeouts more tolerable. He also improved as a hitter, posting a .795 OPS and a .204 ISO. He played in just 14 games after July thanks to an injury and the injury sagged his performance in a big way. Chang has had some issues staying healthy in his short career thus far, but they aren't nagging, just freak injuries so far.
The offensive improvement was encouraging for the Indians and Chang only made 17 errors in 2016, showing he improved defensively as well. With Francisco Lindor at SS, Chang won't stay there in the Indians organization long term, so they'll likely try to move him around a big to third and second base as well. He probably profiles better defensively at second base but has enough arm to play third. He'd need his bat to continue to progress to fit at those positions offensively. I don't think he would have stayed at shortstop regardless but he'll only be 22 in August of next year and should be in Double-A, so it's a huge year for Chang in terms of where his future home on the diamond is. The Indians could continue to dangle him in any trade talk.
#9
OF Anthony Santander
Age: 22 (October 19)
Bats: Switch; Throws: Right
How Acquired: International Free Agent Signed 2011
2016 Highest Level: Advanced-A Lynchburg
Notable Stat: Slugged .493 vs. LHP and .494 against RHP.
Evaluation: Santander enjoyed his first full healthy season in the Indians organization. He hammered 20 homers, drove in 95 and had favorable platoon splits against both right and left handed pitching as a switch hitter. He turned 22 after the season ended and given his experience and time missed with injuries, Santander's age/experience factor in the Carolina League may have not been much of an advantage. He did post a 20.6% K% which the Indians would like to be cut down but he posted a respectable 9.4% BB%. If this is Santander healthy, the Indians have a legitimate power/patience hitter in Santander.
However, after the season he had surgery on his throwing shoulder. That's his third significant arm injury since 2013, when he had elbow issues. Santander's range as an outfielder was a bit below average as it was and was already going to be a left fielder at most. An arm problem complicates that a bit and forces him into a future DH/1B role. He has spent time at first base before and looked OK there but he would have more value as an outfielder. His status for 2017 is unknown with the surgery but the Indians really could have used a healthy Santander heading into his age 22 season in Double-A to give them potentially another rising outfield prospect and potential trade bait. Being injury prone makes his future a bit risky now.
(Note: Santander was selected in the Rule V draft by the Baltimore Orioles. He has to stay on their 25 man roster all season or be returned to the Indians. His shoulder surgery isn't serious enough to let the Orioles stash him on the DL most of the season, so I am ranking him because I believe he'll be returned to the Indians before the regular season begins.)
#10
SS Willi Castro
Age: 19 (April 24)
Bats: Switch; Throws: Right
How Acquired: International Free Agent Signed 2013
2016 Highest Level: Advanced-A Lynchburg
Notable Stat: Had 7 multi-hit games in the month of August including 10 in a four game span
Evaluation: Castro offers a lot of projection and potential and won't be 20 until the 2017 season opens. He's a wiry switch hitter who makes a lot of contact from both sides of the plate and shows the athleticism to stay at shortstop. Unfortunately right now, much like Giovanny Urshela, Castro makes a lot of contact, but a lot of the time it's not good contact. He's able to avoid striking out a lot and doesn't walk a lot, but he has grounded out a lot and flown out a lot (96K/16BB). He looks very fluid at both sides of the plate and has a more line-drive swing, but working on making better contact has to be his focus going forward. As he grows and matures, he could even develop more pop.
Defensively, Castro has solid range and the arm for shortstop. He has good actions going to both sides but his hands are pretty good. With more repetition and work with Travis Fryman and John McDonald should help him get smoother and have better results. Unlike Doryssys Paulino, Castro should stay at shortstop but the Indians hope he makes better contact than Urshela and Ronny Rodriguez and doesn't become a glove first shortstop.
#11
1B Nellie Rodriguez
Age: 22 (June 12)
Bats: Right; Throws: Right
How Acquired: 2012 Draft 4th round (473 overall)
2016 Highest Level: Double-A Akron
Notable Stat: Four or more homers in each full month of the season
Evaluation: Now that Jesus Aguilar has moved on from the organization, Rodriguez is the minor league depth option at first base as a right handed hitter with power. However, much like Aguilar, Rodriguez is prone to high strikeout totals and is on the short end of the platoon, even though he was better against right handers than left handers statistically in 2016. Rodriguez does have excellent raw and game power as proven by hitting 12 of his 26 homers in spacious Canal Park. Making enough contact to get to that power on a consistent basis that make his strikeouts livable is his biggest question. If not, he's likely a Chris Carter type who has three true-outcomes talent but with a bit less power than Carter.
Defensively, Rodriguez is tied to first base. He's about average at first base but probably profiles more as a DH. That and his high strikeout totals keep him from ranking higher and having higher major league potential. However, he has shown a better feel for hitting than Aguilar and has more consistent power than he did in his first exposure to Double-A. A good first showing at Triple-A could give him a bit of a boost. If he does, he may become more relevant next spring if Carlos Santana is gone and the Indians need another 1B/DH player to work in with Edwin Encarnacion and Bobby Bradley isn't that close yet either.
#12
LHP Sam Hentges
Age: 20 (July 18)
Throws: Left
How Acquired: 2014 4th round (128 overall)
2016 Highest Level:Low-A Lake County
Notable Stat: 10.89 K/9
Evaluation: Hentges did have Tommy John surgery midway through 2016 but before that he struck out 73 hitters in 60 ⅓ innings at Low-A Lake County as a 20 year old. Being a 6-foot-6 lefty with a fastball in the mid-90s will get you some of those strikeouts as Hentges wasn't without hit issues. He allowed eight homers and also posted a 4.33 BB/9. The Indians will probably be cautious as he comes back and he may not even pitch out of the complex league in 2017 and he if does, it will be probably July or August back at Lake County. He struck out eight in his second to last start before finding out he needed surgery. A tall, prep-left hander with a mid-90s fastball and feel for a changeup earns him a high ranking despite the surgery.
#13
RHP Dylan Baker
Age: 24 (April 6)
Throws: Right
How Acquired: 2012 Draft 5th round (173 overall)
2016 Highest Level: Didn't pitch
Notable Stat: Five no-hit innings in 2015 debut before injury
Evaluation: This is a higher ranking for Baker for a few reasons. A) I'm only ranking players I've seen in person and haven't made their big league debut, B) Baker still has a lot of upside. He's got enough upside that the Indians continue to protect him on their 40-man roster. He's only thrown five innings since 2015 when he had a no-hitter before being pulled and was pitching on a broken bone in his leg. Since then he's had Tommy John surgery and surgery to clean up an infection in his arm. On the plus side, Baker has less mileage on soon-to-be 25 year old am. On the downside, none of it is at the Double-A level yet and he needs to make up for lost time. That likely puts him in the bullpen as he rebuilds his arm strength and gains experience. His fastball and slider combo likely ticketed him for the bullpen to begin with but he did have a fringe-average changeup. Still, with those two serving as potentially plus pitches, he could move up as a backend reliever if he gets healthy.
#14
RHP Micah Miniard
Age: 20 (April 12)
Throws: Right
How Acquired: 2104 Draft 8th round (248 overall)
2016 Highest Level: Low-A Lake County
Notable Stat: Held left handed hitters to a .227 average
Evaluation: Miniard, like Hentges, is a towering figure on the mound. He gets great downhill movement on the fastball that has some natural cut thanks to his size (6-foot-7). His delivery and secondary pitchers aren't very polished yet, as evidenced by his middling outings in Lake County despite his size and talent. He'll probably head back to Lake County to start the season to work on leveraging his 6-foot-7 frame.
#15
OF Kai'ai Tom
Age: 22 (May 24)
Throws: Right; Bats:Left
How Acquired: 2015 Draft 5th round (154 overall)
2016 Highest Level: Low-A Lake County
Notable Stat: 21 walks compared to 13 strikeouts
Evaluation: Tom is a speedy outfielder with a decent hit tool and plays good outfield defense. He does a little bit of everything but nothing great. A shoulder injury cut short his season in 2016 but if he can come back and prove that his patience, hit tool and speed are real assets, he should have no problem sticking with the organization and proving he has enough tools to be a helpful big league outfielder some day.
16-20
#16 RHP Julian Merryweather
#17 C Eric Haase
#18 RHP Matt Esparza
#19 LHP Thomas Pannone
#20 C Jeremy Lucas
Merryweather saw his velocity tick up a bit last year with some better command thanks to a change in his delivery. He still projects as a reliever but if his curve improves a bit more, his durable frame could help him become back end starter...Haase struggled in his initial taste of Double-A but he fought through some injuries. He still has some good pop, will draw a walk and has a plus arm behind the plate and good throwing mechanics....Esparza is a pretty good strike thrower so far that dominated Low-A thanks to his advance approach. His secondary offerings are fringy but he might have enough to become a middle reliever...Pannone is also a strike thrower and has some makings of a left handed Josh Tomlin with has ability to find the plate and decent changeup...Lucas can hit. He's not a backstop at the highest level and probably doesn't hit enough as a first basemen. But there is some power there that makes him intriguing.
About the other guys: I likely would have had Brady Aiken, Nolan Jones, Will Benson, Juan Hillman, Rob Kaminsky, Andrew Calica and Gabriel Mejia in the top-20 had I seen any of them in 2016. I did hear Aiken's velocity ticked into the 92-94 range at season's end. I saw Calica in a few at bats in 2016 but not enough to make a solid evaluation. His hit tool makes him interesting even though he lacks much power and might not be a full time center fielder..
POSTED 03/03/2017 12:14
Lake County Sentinel
Photo by Justin Lada
Indians Pitching Prospect Triston McKenzie