2017 American League East Preview
Boston Red Sox
2016: 93-69 (AL East Champs, lost in ALDS to Cleveland)
Key additions: LHP Chris Sale,1B Mitch Moreland, RP Tyler Thornburg
Key subtractions: DH David Ortiz (retired), RP Brad Ziegler, RP Koji Uehara, RP Junichi Tazawa, SP/RP Clay Bucholz, 3B Travis Shaw, INF/OF Yoan Moncada
Pitching: I like the addition of Chris Sale. He's huge boost to an already pretty good pitching rotation. Rick Porcello had a career year last year, winning the Cy Young award. David Price had an up-and-down first year in some respects but still had a good year by most standards. The question will be the health of his elbow. He's been shut down in Spring Training but supposedly just needs some R&R. Even without Price, Sale and Porcello are a good 1-2 punch. The question about the Red Sox rotation is depth. Steven Wright and Drew Pomeranz both dealt with injuries in 2016 and have never pitched a full season. Eduardo Rodriguez is young and talented but also has injury concerns. As far as depth, reclamation project Kyle Kendrick is having a nice camp and Henry Owens also could fill the sixth starter role. But beyond that Roenis Elias and Brian Johnson are their other options, neither of which have tons of quality experience and Elias had an injury midway through camp.
Their bullpen should be a strength but there's some questions. Craig Kimbrel's walk rate rose to 5.09 BB/9, however, so there's some question as to if he is starting to slow down from five straight years of 60+ appearances before last season. Thornburg and Joe Kelly make for a nice backup. They'd like Robbie Ross and Fernando Abad to shore up their left handed situation a little better than they did last year
Lineup: Even without Ortiz, this is still a good lineup. They'll get a full season from highly regarded top prospect Andrew Benintendi and he's expected to do big things right away.Technically, Mitch Moreland is "replacing" Ortiz but the Red Sox hope for a Gold Glove caliber first baseman and good platoon bat from the former Ranger. Mookie Betts had an MVP worthy season in 2016 if he didn't play in the era of Trout. Hanley Ramirez has some shoulder questions but he had a good 2016. Catcher will continue to be a question mark because Sandy Leon struggled down the stretch and Blake Swihart hurt his knee last season because the Red Sox tried to make him an outfielder.
Path to the playoffs: Even if Price battles elbow issues this season, this team is plenty talented enough to win the rugged AL East. Pitching depth is their main concern so if that becomes an issue, it could knock them back to a Wild Card spot. They also don't have as much ammo in years past prospect wise to make a deadline deal. But Dave Dombrowski is great at trading prospects to major league talent, so if anyone can squeeze blood from the turnip again, expect the Red Sox to trade for a starter to go for another division title.
X-Factor: You could argue Price's elbow is a major factor, but you can say health is an x-factor for any team. It will be team leadership without Ortiz. Dustin Pedroia is the heart of the team now and Betts can be a leader, but Ortiz was the pulse of that team on and off the field for so long, finding their identity and where that production will come from is going to be a big question.
Baltimore Orioles
2016: 89-73 (2nd Wild Card, lost in Wild Card game to Toronto)
Key additions: OF Seth Smith, C Welington Castillo
Key subtractions: C Matt Wieters, SP Yovanni Gallardo, UT Steve Pearce
Lineup: Welington Castillo is a downgrade in terms of pitch framing, but he's not as big a downgrade from Wieters as you may think. Castillo probably has better game power at this point and OPACY might be a nice home for him. They re-signed Mark Trumbo for a great deal and added Pedro Alvarez to play outfield again, continuing to sort of punt defense. Seth Smith is a nice platoon bat and Jonathan Schoop had a really nice 2016. This offense is still pretty good even if they're a bit one-dimensional.
Pitching staff: Getting rid of Gallardo actually might be an upgrade in itself other than it just affects their depth. While they lack quality depth, both Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman seemed poised to both be ready to take that next step (for the 5th time?). Bundy has been allowed to "re-add" his cutter (which was his best pitch before the Orioles told him to stop throwing it when they drafted him). Gausman had some pretty good peripherals last year that indicate he could be ready to break out. Their bullpen is pretty good as usual, even if Darren O'Day is showing signs of slowing down. Mycheal Givens and Zach Britton are a pretty dangerous duo.
Path to the playoffs: Boston seems to be the heavy favorites, even if Price is injured. But, if the Orioles intend to compete, this has to be the year that Bundy and Gausman lead the staff. Of course, they manage to get by with subpar starting pitching yearly. But, they should have plenty of power again and a good bullpen, so even if Bundy and Gausman can lead the staff better than they did a year ago, they're at least a legitimate Wild Card contender.
X-Factor: It would be too easy to say Bundy and Gausman breaking out, but a lot of that could be predicated on how Welington Castillo works with the pitching staff. He was -9.4 in framing runs a year ago and has never been rated a good pitch framer. So, he's not going to really help the pitching staff much but he should be better offensively than Matt Wieters.
Toronto Blue Jays
2016: 89-73 (1st Wild Card, lost in ALCS to Cleveland)
Key additions: DH Kendrys Morales, UT Steve Pearce, LHP J.P. Howell, RHP Joe Smith
Key subtractions: 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion, OF Michael Saunders, LHP Brett Cecil
Path to the playoffs: If Aaron Sanchez can come close to repeating his 2016 performance (his FIP was a half run higher than his 3.00 ERA), he can lead what should be a good starting pitching staff. The Blue Jays will have to hope that Morales and Pearce can makeup for the offense they lost in Encarnacion and Saunders. Where they might feel the biggest hit is the loss of Brett Cecil in the bullpen, even though Roberto Osuna keeps getting better. Health should keep Jose Bautista from fading too fast despite the fact he is clearly in decline and they should have no problem contending for the Wild Card with an outside shot at the division if everything breaks right.
X-Factor: Francisco Liriano working with Russell Martin again should help him regain some confidence on the mound and can help solidify a rotation that's talented, however not extremely deep. Martin also showed some signs of slowing last season too, so whatever he can do to stave off father him in 2017 will go a long way towards the Blue Jays playoff hopes.
New York Yankees
2016: 84-78 (4th in AL East)
Key additions: LHP Aroldis Chapman, 1B Chris Carter
Key subtractions: C Brian McCann, 1B Mark Teixeira
Path to the playoffs: Masahiro Tanaka is the only sure thing in the rotation, and even he has his injury issues. However, the rotation does have a lot of upside. Michael Pineda is having a good spring, Chad Green and Luis Severino still offer upside and CC Sabathia actually had a solid 2016 season.If they're starting pitching holds up, the bullpen is more than good enough to hold leads and a full season of Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and the return of Greg Bird make this offense potent with help on the way from the minors. They should remain in the Wild Card hunt.
X-Factor: If Michael Pineda finally comes close to pitching up to his potential, the rotation has a chance to be good, even though it lacks depth. But finally getting the results he's capable of could really cement the Yankees playoff contender status.
Tampa Bay Rays
2016: 68-94 (5th in AL East)
Key additions: C Wilson Ramos, OF Colby Rasmus, RHP Jose De Leon, OF Mallex Smith
Key subtractions: 2B Logan Forsythe, LHP Drew Smyly
Path to the playoffs: The Rays were probably the best 68 win team in 2016. They have the rotation to do it. The bullpen is pretty good. Brad Miller is going to need to prove his power spike was no fluke and Matt Duffy has to prove he can handle SS. If Wilson Ramos recovers from an ACL tear and proves his 2016 was no fluke, their pitching should keep them in the Wild Card hunt.
X-factor: Wilson Ramos could be the long awaited answer to the Rays catching woes. They havent had many backstops who can combine hitting with good pitch framing skills. Whenever he is cleared to catch, if he comes back as good as he was in 2016, he can be a huge difference in the Rays contending for the Wild Card or pulling up the rear in the division again. .
POSTED 03/24/2017 14:19
Lake County Sentinel
